Deterring renewed attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia on US warships and growing threats on international commercial shipping in the Red Sea will take “significant” diplomatic and military efforts, despite better international preparedness, experts have told Al Arabiya English.
Houthi forces claimed on Wednesday to have carried out a fourth attack in 72 hours on an American fleet in the Red Sea – one of the world’s busiest shipping routes – specifically targeting the USS Harry S. Truman carrier group.
It comes after pledging last week to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping in support Palestinians in Gaza who have been under heavy Israeli bombardment. This series of attacks represents a marked intensification in their campaign, which began in November 2024.
In response, the US military said its pressure campaign against the Iran-backed armed group was ongoing.
Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow for the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, told Al Arabiya English that it is “not that serious, but also serious.”
“It is not that serious because so far they (the US) have been able to stop all the rockets or drones before they hit their targets, and the Houthi technology is not yet very advanced,” he said.
“But only if one in a hundred doesn’t miss, that will still do a lot of damage. Then it’s very expensive. The Houthis will spend $2,000 on a rocket – but the damage caused – that can be about $100,000, so of course it’s quite consuming and bleeding for the US.”
The Red Sea’s strategic significance cannot be overstated.
Approximately 10 percent of global trade traverses through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait annually, making it one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. The current crisis has led to substantial increases in shipping costs and insurance premiums, contributing to global inflationary pressures.
The economic impact extends beyond immediate shipping concerns.
As al-Muslimi explains, “Shipping routes are, first and foremost, psychological routes. So, the insurance (to cover these ships) already went up, and the decisions by ships not to go through that route are already expensive.”
According to the expert, the Houthis won’t any slowing down despite US strikes unless there’s some sort of “long-term ceasefire” in Gaza.
US response
The US initiated powerful airstrikes against the Tehran-backed group on Saturday, triggering widespread protests in the conflict-ravaged nation. A US general noted that the group’s retaliatory actions largely failed to reach their targets.
Washington has vowed to continue delivering decisive and deadly strikes on Yemen until the Houthi armed group ceases its attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Threats of ‘global concern’
Raphael S. Cohen, a senior political scientist at RAND Corporation, also told Al Arabiya English the ongoing Houthi threat brings global concern.
“In and of itself, it should not be surprising that the Houthis have not folded despite the American strikes,” he said. “The Houthis are a large, sophisticated terrorist group and proven they can withstand large scale air strikes in the past.”
According to Cohen, “deterring the Houthis from future attacks will take significant effort.”
The Houthi movement, which emerged in the 1990s, has transformed from a localized resistance group in northern Yemen to a significant regional actor. Their control over key Yemeni territories, including the capital Sanaa since 2014, has given them strategic leverage over vital maritime routes.
The current maritime crisis represents an evolution of their capabilities and strategy, said Cohen.
While their previous operations primarily focused on Yemen’s internal conflict, their current campaign demonstrates an expanded operational reach and more sophisticated tactical approach.
By sheer geography, the Houthis can threaten shipping through Bab el Mandeb — one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world — so it’s a “fundamentally dangerous situation,” said Cohen.
But, he said, global powers are better positioned now to deter the Yemen-based group since it first escalated its campaign in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes back in November 2024.
“In contrast with when this conflict kicked off almost a year and a half ago, the international community is better positioned to respond,” he said. “Some commercial vessels have been rerouted, and there is more military presence there too.”
Regional intervention
Recent diplomatic initiatives have included Iranian involvement, with Tehran reportedly sending messages through diplomatic channels to de-escalate tensions.
Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters this week that Iran had delivered a verbal message to the Houthi envoy in Tehran on Friday to “cool tensions,” though Iran maintains that the Houthis operate independently.
Looking ahead, Cohen suggests that the US response under the Trump administration may be tempered by broader strategic considerations.
“The Trump administration has promised to retaliate against any renewed Houthi attacks, not just against the Houthis but also against their Iranian backers as well. They have argued that the Houthis have gotten away with preying on international commerce for far too long and that this must stop,” Cohen said.
“At the same time, the Trump administration has also signalled a desire to end wars in both Ukraine and the Middle East, so that may limit the size and scope of American retaliation.”
‘A bloody eye-for-an-eye scenario’
The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea represents a complex challenge, according to al-Muslimi.
“I think it is going to be a bloody eye-for-an-eye scenario and a ship-for-ship scenario,” he said, suggesting that a resolution may require addressing broader regional conflicts, particularly the situation in Gaza.
The Houthis have vowed the recent US bombardment would not stop their support for Gaza.
“The US aggression will not deter the steadfast and struggling Yemen from fulfilling its religious, moral, and humanitarian duties toward the Palestinian people,” the Houthis said in a statement Wednesday.
On Tuesday, the Hamas-allied group also took responsibility for a missile intercepted by Israel and vowed to escalate attacks after the resumption of massive military operations in the Gaza Strip.
Tuesday’s missile, which the Houthis said targeted an air base, was the first reported attack on Israel from Yemen since the January 19 ceasefire in the Israeli war on Gaza.
Israel said it intercepted a missile launched from Yemen after air raid sirens sounded in Beersheba and parts of the Negev Desert.
A military statement later said that “a missile launched from Yemen was intercepted by the IAF (air force) prior to crossing into Israeli territory.”
The Houthis’ supreme political council condemned “the Zionist enemy’s resumption of aggression against the Gaza Strip.”
The latest wave of Israeli strikes in Gaza on Tuesday, by far the deadliest since the truce took effect, killed more than 400 Palestinians, according to the health ministry in the Strip.
